Since I revealed the annual forecast final January ’22, BTCUSD has already examined the decrease restrict of the forecast twice, at round $30,000.
I don’t know whether or not to interpret this behaviour as an indication of weak point or not. What is for certain is that if the TOP of this halving cycle has been made it is vitally prone to check a minimum of the first decrease band of my month-to-month Kama common (22,700$).
Let’s see intimately the degrees that I think about fascinating to look at.
I’d interpret as a sign of attainable weak point a breach of the $29,800 degree, actually we have to think about how lengthy bitcoin will stay beneath that degree.
In instances of momentary excessive volatility it will not be so critical a brief permanence there; nonetheless a protracted keep beneath this degree would have long run bearish implications. What does this imply? It signifies that the video games are over for this cycle and we must look forward to the subsequent halving of 2024, so I’d say 2025, to see a brand new all-time excessive. This conclusion I assume doesn’t shock you, by now the 4-year halving cycle of bitcoin is well-known to the general public.
The query is whether or not the value will cease on the first degree of the Kama band or not. I feel so, round $22,000 the assist will likely be very sturdy and there will likely be patrons.
I exclude a extreme check on the subsequent assist, round $14,000, additionally as a result of bitcoin has by no means moved beneath the excessive of the earlier halving cycle, on this case the final one was at round $19,800 in Dec. 2017; moreover even throughout the corona crash the value stopped on the primary decrease band (at the moment $3,800)
I ponder what must occur to see bitcoin check the second worth band at $14k, if any of you might have concepts please come ahead 🙂
Personally, I will likely be a purchaser once more across the first assist of the Kama common, round $22,000. Ought to an excessive degree of volatility happen, I’ll enhance the place at $14,000 with a doubled place dimension (1 unit at 22k$ and a couple of items at 14k$) as a result of i’ve to capitalize when volatility is at excessive ranges with none worry.
See you on the subsequent replace.